India, China, Brazil to surpass combined GDP of U.S., western Europe by 2020: UN

Mumbai and India are part of a “South” that is radically reshaping the 21st century world, with developing nations driving economic growth, lifting hundreds of millions of people from poverty and bringing billions more into a new global middle class, says the UN. Punit Paranjpe/AFP/Getty Images

NEW DELHI — The combined output of BRICS countries will surpass the aggregate GDP of the U.S., Canada and four European powers by 2020, a UN report said Friday.

“By 2020, the combined economic output of three leading developing countries alone — Brazil, China and India — will surpass the aggregate production of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the U.K. and the United States,” said the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) 2013 Human Development Report.

Brazil, Russia, India, China, and latest member South Africa, make up the BRICS group of emerging economies.

The growth phenomenon goes well beyond the BRICS middle income countries. The Report shows that more than 40 developing countries have made greater human development gains in recent decades than would have been predicted.

“The rise of the South is unprecedented in its speed and scale,” the report says. “Never in history have the living conditions and prospects of so many people changed so dramatically and so fast.”

The rise of the South is radically reshaping the 21st century world with developing nations driving economic growth, lifting hundreds of millions of people from poverty, and bringing billions more into a new global middle class, it said.

By 2030, more than 80 per cent of the world’s middle class and 70 per cent of total consumption expenditure will come from the South – a term that denotes developing countries.

The South as a whole is driving global economic growth and societal change for the first time in centuries, the report said.

According to the report, the economic take-offs in China and India began when their respective populations reached about one billion and per capita output doubled in less than 20 years, resulting in an economic growth that affected a much larger population than the Industrial Revolution.

The South is increasingly interdependent and interconnected. Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and Mexico now have more daily social-media traffic than any country except the United States.

Regarding India, the report said its government, by investing in world-class tertiary education, building human capabilities and opening up trade and investment, allowed India to capitalize on its stock of skilled workers in technology.

These industries were generating $70 billion in export earning by 2011-12, and similar stories can be told for India’s pharmaceuticals, automobile, chemical and service industries, it added.

However, India has averaged nearly five per cent income growth a year over 1990-2012 and per capita income is still low, around $3,400 in 2012, it said

India’s performance in accelerating human development is less impressive than its growth performance, the 2013 report said. India’s position in Human Development Index was 136 out of 187 countries in 2012. It ranked 134 in 2011.

The UNDP report said, however, that it is misleading to compare values and rankings with those of previously published reports, because the underlying data and methods have changed.

– IANS